Seasonality Study - Houston Single Family Homes - Jan2019 to Nov2023

Dated: December 13 2023

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This is an update I publish and distribute from time to time.  If you'd like this and the other studies sent to you directly, send an email to davejensen@connectrealty.com with your contact info and I'll add you to the data distributions.

 

Yes the market is softening.  This happens every year during this season (July to November).  No surprise.  Month over month comparisons are not very useful since the trend is not long enough to measure.  The trend is a repeating flow every year.  Knowing the market historical trends takes anxiety out of headlines.  And then month over month changes are better understood, if not fully anticipated.

 

These 2 charts below give a tidy picture of the seasonality of Houston’s Single Family Home transaction activity.

 

 

In terms of properties sold, we are well below the long run average, but in terms of sales price, we are still bumping along at near the all time highs. A stubborn reality of continuing housing affordability problems for many would be buyers.

 

I'll be resuming my data distribution so we all know from the data what is actually happening in the market.  Lots of imagination and commentary not supported by data.

  

Expect a bit more market pressure into Jan2024 (fewer deals are typically written in December).  And we will resume the activity march higher from Feb to July (deals inked in January generally close in February, and so on)

  

This happens every year.  

  

From today's Fed press conference (12-13-2023), the Federal Funds Rate will stand pat.  And the consensus is Powell will complete 3 rate cuts through 2024.  The spread is historically about 200 basis points (2%) between fed rate and headline mortgage rates.

 

Increasing the rate caused a lot of problems for a lot of people and companies.  It's hoped rate cuts will give consumers relief and confidence in large ticket purchases (like homes).

 

  

That's it for now.

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Dave Jensen

I started Real Estate Investing in 2006 by accident.  Instead of selling my home, I rented it to a friend and his small family from the neighborhood who needed a place to live. Then my Realtor he....

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